Well, another year hoves into view. 2024. How did that happen?
This year, we thought we would indulge in what we abhor others doing – namely some prognostication for what the year might hold in store for us all, in particular for marketing effectiveness. We build econometric models, which are sometimes used to make forecasts. So, without further ado, and with massive overreach, here are our confident, bold, unequivocal predictions for the year ahead.
1. Proliferation and fragmentation
2024 will see even more fragmentation of audiences chiefly as existing platforms – content owners and distributors – come up with more ways to monetise their investments in content and distribution. Recent years have seen existing players such as Google re-cut their traditional offerings to provide more ways for eager marketers to spend their advertising pounds. We’ve also seen certain high-profile VOD platforms acknowledge that the subscription model alone may not be enough to fulfil their revenue expectations for the business.
The liquidity crunch, associated with a return to ‘normal’ (by historical standards) levels of interest rates, has drained off some of the surplus money previously sloshing around the system. Previously, investors were desperate to fund, indefinitely, any venture with even the faintest possibility of success. We’ve seen a shift among clients to euphemistically call “a focus on unit economics” i.e. making a profit. This will likely continue.
With the rise in desperation to monetise, advertisers can expect to be inundated with choice, a plethora of competing ‘research’ claiming C-suite ROI for each new media channel, and find more hands in their pockets, feeling for their wallets. And with that, an increase in the need for marketing effectiveness and objective measurement. Eternal vigilance is the price of choice.
2. The Death of Econometrics….
…will, therefore, not happen. This has been a repeated theme, certainly, since I got into the MMM business in 2005. Worried for my livelihood, as all prudent people are, I’ve had reason more than most, over the last 19 years, to cast the odd glance at the state of the econometrics business. First it was neural networks, then it was the rise of digital media and native tracking of results. More recently it’s been AI and machine learning. And yet here we are. The need – to maximise the effectiveness of each marketing £ – has not changed.
In fact, the very proliferation mentioned above has intensified the need for a single source of truth, capable of placing media channels on a level playing field, which native tracking of results, specific to each channel, does not do.
And there’s still no short-cut to that single source of truth. As much as we may imagine a future in which computers automatically build robust and reliable econometric models, it’s still very much in the future and very much in the imagination. For now, the best models will continue to be built by experienced specialists applying their experience and creativity to the task of squeezing insight out of data and analysing marketing effectiveness.
ChatGPT can’t tell you the profit of your TV campaign, but an Econometric Model can.
3. The Death of The Cookie…
…may, on the other hand, finally happen. 2024 is the latest deadline given by our Google friends for ‘sunsetting’ third-party cookies. We’ve been here before, and we’ve heard this before (read our blog ‘Econometrics in a Cookieless World). It might not happen this year. But, then again, it might.
4. MetaMetrics will continue to flourish and grow
Lastly, turning to a subject close to our hearts, namely ourselves, we’re hoping for another bumper year of continued growth as we assist you, dear reader, and others like you, in understanding your marketing effectiveness and making the best marketing investment decisions possible. 2023 saw us adding to our headcount, and we’ve plans to expand further to meet the growing demand.
We very much expect to be here, and hopefully helping more clients than ever, in January 2025, so you can come back and tell us how our predictions for 2024 fared.
If you have any questions about measuring your marketing campaign effectiveness in 2024, please feel free to get in touch. Or if you’d like to get a better understanding of Econometrics download our free ebook ‘Guide to Econometric Modelling for Modern Marketers’.