Under Pressure: How Marketers Can Protect Budgets and Prove ROI This Autumn 

The nights are drawing in, mince pies have been on the shelves for weeks, and a sense of dread fills every marketer’s head as they prepare for year-end. Board members, decision-makers and financial teams are circling. Budgets are already stretched, targets are increasing and the market’s bouncing around like it’s hyped up on sugar. But don’t panic. You can defend your spend. And with some of our tips, you might even get a few extra treats. 

Prove it or lose it

Let’s be clear. The underlying question hiding in every budget review is, “Can we get away with spending less?” Historically, it was easier to answer “yes” for marketing because it was harder to link every activity directly to revenue. Social likes aren’t as compelling to budget holders as units sold. They’re less impressed with brand recall than revenue. Stakeholders and decision makers want to see a direct link between investment and return. 

It’s tough being a marketer during autumn budget reviews. You’re balancing short-term revenue targets with long-term brand building. Stakeholders have extremely high expectations, the CFO wants to see actual ROI this quarter, but some work won’t show results for months. Without a compelling argument, backed-up with quantifiable data, you’re at risk of undermining all the work you’ve done. If you cut the budget for channels that drive long-term value, you know you’ll pay the price later. 

Attribution is harder than ever. Digital signals are incomplete, and customer journeys are fragmented. But with econometric data, you can prove the real value of marketing in every channel, across every department. And prove your hard work really is making a difference to profit margins and revenue. Explaining why marketing deserves a fair share of next year’s budget. 

Econometrics (or Marketing Mix Modelling) is the only technique capable of measuring the impact of every attribution simultaneously. And even cleverer, econometric modelling shows true channel effectiveness, even when digital attribution breaks down. By controlling for impact of other drivers (seasonal habits, market changes, availability, etc), it highlights which of your activities are working, and how well. Giving you the confidence to battle every budget question from the budget review board. 

With econometrics, you get granular detail not vanity metrics. Goodbye engagement rates or impressions that stakeholders don’t really care about. Hello sales impact, new customer onboarding, subscription uplift, for every channel. It means you can directly link that TV campaign with £XXX in extra sales. Solid proof for the budget busters. 

Your autumn action plan 

If you’re facing budget pressure right now, here’s what you need to do: 

Get measurements in place. Whether it’s econometric modelling, historic attribution, or tracking, give the budget controllers what they want. It doesn’t have to be perfect, but the data needs to be robust. If you bring objective measurement to your marketing, the more they’ll trust your investment decisions. 

Speak their language. It might sound obvious, but it bears repeating. Stop talking about impressions and engagement. Start talking about incremental sales, profit contribution, and business impact. Make it easier for them to see the connection between investment and action. And easier for them to say yes to your requests. 

“Sales and profit aren’t the only measures of success, but as a rule of thumb, the closer to them you can get, the more compelling your case to the CFO will be.” 
A Guide to Setting Your Marketing Budget, MetaMetrics 

Manage expectations. If you don’t have econometric data (yet) try to manage expectations around what you can measure, which will appeal to finance. Don’t just hope they’ll be happy with charts, brand share and social engagement levels. Maybe agree on some common ground before your review session to get the inside track. 

Turning pressure into a strategic advantage

Once you’ve got your data and the lingo ready, it’s time to build your case. Prepare your defence by addressing each of these areas. And be specific (it’s much easier when you’ve got solid measurement data in your pocket). 

• How much do you need? Break it down by channel, by campaign, by month if necessary. 

• For what? Link activity to measurable business outcomes. What will this £250k investment actually deliver? 

• When do you need it? Timing matters. Show you understand seasonality, campaign cycles, and financial goals. 

• Why does it matter? Share the evidence. Prove the return. Make your business case impossible to ignore. 

Positive, insightful and proactive 

So now you have solid proof (data), a plan, and the confidence to protect your budget. Next, think about being proactive and suggesting ways to reallocate next year’s spend for greater impact. Econometrics helps you know what activities to do, when, how much and where to do them for maximum returns.  

For example, the data might suggest your events will drive more conversions than PPC. Or you’re underutilising a channel that’s proving popular with your target audience. 

Use this budget review to pitch your ideas and show decision makers what they could achieve. 

Share different options by embracing the beauty of a sliding scale, e.g. £800,000, £1 million or a stretch plan for £1.2 million. Make it clear what each plan costs short term and long term so decision-makers can make an informed choice based on their strategic goal. 

It’s equally important to show alternatives, namely the ramifications of budget cuts. What happens if they cut your budget by 20%? What’s the sacrifice? How will it affect the business long-term? You can read our Big Book of ROI for more information, but here’s the headline: Maximising ROI is not the same as maximising profit. Increasing marketing investment can generate more total profit whilst simultaneously reducing ROI (and vice versa). Clarify whether the financial goal is to maximise every pound you spend, or to maximise profit. 

Some inspiring econometrics

MetaMetrics do this day in, day out, so of course we’re going to say econometrics can inform financial decisions. But to help argue our case, and show the possibilities econometrics provides, here are a few examples from our clients. 

Banking the halo effect

For a long-term blue-chip client, our econometric models showed ROI climbing steadily, from 75% in year one to nearly 200% a few years later. Fantastic! But with extra modelling, we highlighted their focus on ROI could damage long-term brand health as they were investing more in digital channels with higher immediate ROI over brand-build channels. 

After rebalancing their plans with a more efficient spread across channels, we helped deliver short-term ROI efficiency and long-term brand health. 

The real impact of cutting marketing spend

 A client facing significant media budget cuts needed to understand how reducing spend would affect overall revenue. Our econometric models analysing three years of data across different funnel stages showed that keeping the same strategy with a lower budget would significantly reduce sales. 

Using our models, we helped them identify opportunities to maintain and even increase sales with a lower spend, by focusing on fewer channels. 

The bottom line

There you have it. Budget season might be a battle, but there’s hope. You’ve now got evidence-based insights on your side, a strong battle plan and the confidence to make your case. Go and show the decision-makers that you know your stuff, you’ve delivered some fantastic results and then show them exactly what their investment will deliver next year. All with the trusty support of invaluable econometric modelling. 

Don’t have econometrics yet? Don’t worry, contact us to find out how MetaMetrics can help you prove the commercial value of your marketing to the organisation.