The MetaMetrics perspective on changes over the last decade in marketing – and the continuity of econometrics 

Marketing rarely stands still and, over the past 10 years, the industry has been reshaped in a variety of ways.  

The rise of digital platforms, the near-collapse of third-party tracking, the arrival of self-service analytics tools and, most recently, a cascade of AI-powered solutions are among some of those changes - each promising to simplify the business of measuring what works. 

Throughout it all, however, econometrics has endured. It has been questioned and scrutinised – and it has returned, every time, as the most robust and reliable method of understanding what is actually driving marketing performance. 

MetaMetrics has been working in this field over the past two decades and, during that time, our team has watched these shifts from the inside – building models, challenging assumptions and advising clients through each wave of change. 

In our latest blog post, we sat down with MetaMetrics directors Philip Gaudoin and Sam Watts, as well as client services manager Rebecca Shaw to consider the last decade of marketing and econometrics and ask: what has genuinely changed, what hasn’t and what does it all mean for the marketers navigating this landscape today. 

1) Econometrics has grown up – and so have the brands using it 

For most of its commercial history, marketing mix modelling was the preserve of large organisations with substantial budgets.  

The data infrastructure required was significant, the cost of the analysis itself was considerable, and only a handful of sectors had the scale to make it viable. 

Yet that picture has now changed substantially, with the growth of digital media, the proliferation of data and the relative affordability of online advertising channels collectively lowering the barrier to entry. Businesses that would never have considered econometrics a decade ago are now commissioning it as a matter of course. 

Sam said: “10 years ago, econometrics was done by big companies with big budgets.  

“But the increase in data and the availability of more cost-effective media has meant that businesses with much smaller budgets can now justify the analysis.” 

The shift is not only about cost, with Philip noting a significant change in how demand itself has moved. He said: “It’s been much more pulled in rather than pushed out. People are saying they want to do econometrics – they know they want it.”  

Where econometrics once had to be sold to sceptical clients, organisations are now actively seeking it out – often arriving with a precise sense of the commercial questions they want it to answer. 

This means marketing mix modelling is no longer a tool reserved for businesses operating at a certain scale. If your marketing budget is meaningful to your business – whatever the absolute figure – there is likely a case for understanding more precisely what it is doing. 

2) New tools come and go – but the fundamentals never do 

There is a pattern Philip has observed repeat itself across his career with a regularity he now finds more instructive than surprising.  

He said: “Econometrics is still here. The big change is no change – it comes back every few years and it seems to come back stronger each time.” 

The mechanism is consistent – a new measurement tool or platform arrives, attracting considerable industry attention. It promises to deliver what econometrics delivers, but faster, cheaper or with less friction. 

Marketers investigate and some commit but, gradually, the gap between the promise and the reality becomes apparent. As Sam said: “It’s always been about the pilot, not the plane.”  

The technology matters far less than the expertise of the person operating it – and that expertise is not something a software package can replicate. 

And the underlying statistics that power econometric modelling have changed far less than the industry conversation might suggest. Sam said: “The fundamental statistics haven’t changed massively. There are people out there now using the same technology they were using 15 years ago.”  

What has evolved is MetaMetrics’ own capability to execute more sophisticated techniques – Bayesian econometrics, which the team began pioneering over a decade ago at a time when it required significant manual effort, is now embedded as standard in their platform. 

The method has matured but the core discipline has not. And, for businesses weighing up whether to explore self-service tools or work with a specialist, that distinction is worth understanding clearly. 

3) The independent voice has never mattered more 

For much of econometrics’ commercial history, it was frequently delivered by the same media agencies responsible for planning and buying the very media being evaluated.  

That, however, has changed - with companies markedly more sophisticated than they were a decade ago and considerably more sceptical.  

Sam said: “As people get more comfortable with what econometrics is, they become more uncomfortable with the people doing the media also judging the media. They value that trusted advisor, stood-apart view.” 

And Philip added: “If you think econometrics is just a bit of software, then you might as well buy it from your media agent. But if you realise that the person building the model makes a lot of decisions, then you’ve got to trust the person.” 

It is notable that agencies themselves are increasingly reaching the same conclusion.  

Several are stepping back from econometrics – not because the demand for it has reduced but because they recognise that clients are right to want it conducted independently. The analysis is only as trustworthy as the analyst. 

The independence of MetaMetrics has always been part of its design and, in the current climate, it has become one of its most consequential qualities.  

4) Econometrics has moved from the marketing team to the boardroom 

There was a time when a MetaMetrics debrief would only be attended by marketing managers and research leads.  

That audience has now expanded significantly. Finance directors, chief marketing officers and – with increasing frequency – board members are now part of the conversation.  

The appetite for rigorous measurement of marketing effectiveness has moved up the organisational hierarchy – and the language of those discussions has shifted accordingly. 

Sam said: “10 years ago, we were probably just talking to research and marketing people. Now you’re talking to finance teams, to much more varied groups.”  

And Philip added: “As well as being pulled into companies, econometrics is being pulled up within them.” 

The consequences run in both directions. On one hand, the standard of evidence required has risen but, on the other, the “black box” perception that once made econometrics a difficult sell to non-specialist stakeholders has largely dissolved. 

For marketing teams currently working to build the internal case for econometric investment, this shift is worth bearing in mind. The boardroom is not the obstacle it once was. 

5) The debrief is no longer the end of the process – it’s the beginning 

The traditional model of econometric engagement followed a clear structure – a client commissioned an analysis, MetaMetrics built the models, presented the findings and the project concluded. The debrief was the destination.  

Rebecca Shaw joined MetaMetrics two years ago and one of the most significant things she has observed since then is how fundamentally that model has changed. 

She said: “Previously, the debrief felt like the end of the process. I don’t think that’s the case now. It’s very much the beginning of how we can help clients make changes.” 

The question that follows the debrief – what do we do with this? – is now a central part of what MetaMetrics is engaged to answer. 

Philip said this was an impact model, built around three stages: solution, adoption and execution. He said: “The problem we’re solving for is broader now. It’s broader, deeper, more organisational, more people-based.” 

This evolution is visible in how client relationships are developing over time. Rebecca said that repeat engagements are becoming the norm rather than the exception.  

She said: “For a lot of our clients, one model is just never enough. We see more and more clients coming back for wave two, wave three, wave four.”  

Businesses are also expanding the geographic scope of their modelling – using UK-based analysis as a foundation before extending to the US, Australian and other markets. 

The shift in language from Philip is telling. He said: “People are now looking for an effectiveness partnership,”  

Not a project, not a report, a partnership – with all the continuity, trust and evolving ambition that word implies. 

Looking ahead – so what comes next?  

After a decade of change, one thing at MetaMetrics is settled: confidence in what comes next. Sam said: “Econometrics is not going away. If anything, the resurgence will continue.  

“People have become aware that there’s never going to be a magic bullet of analysis where we have a single source of truth of one person’s advertising journey. Econometrics is the solution.” 

Over the past 10 years, MetaMetrics has understood that better than most.   If your business is spending meaningfully on marketing and you are not yet confident in your ability to measure what is working, the conversation is worth having.